Tom Henderson氏の報告書では、OpenAIの独占的な需要によりDRAM価格が急激に上昇し、サーバーモジュールが50%上昇、一部の消費者向けバリエーションが最大170%上昇したことが強調されている。この供給不足は、コンソールメーカーにとって深刻なジレンマを生み出しており、コストを吸収するか、消費者へ転嫁するか、あるいは価格安定を待って生産を遅らせるかを判断せねばならない。業界分析によると、RAM価格はここ数カ月で数百パーセント上昇しており、競争力のある価格帯でコンソールを大量生産する課題を一層深刻化させている。
Henderson氏の調査によると、SonyやMicrosoftなどのメーカーは、2027〜2028年の発売窓口を超える遅延を検討している。この戦略的判断は、RAM生産業者が生産能力を拡大してコストを低減できるかどうかにかかっている。業界予測では、AIおよびデータセンター拡大によるメモリ不足が数年にわたり継続する可能性があり、PS5やXbox Series Xなどの現行世代コンソールのライフサイクルを延長する要因となり得る。この延長スケジュールにより、開発者はGTA 6などのタイトルやPS5 Proのような強化版で既存ハードウェアを最大限活用できる。
The gaming industry is grappling with a significant challenge that may alter the timeline for next-generation console launches. Recent insights from industry insider Tom Henderson, combined with broader industry analysis, suggest that escalating RAM prices, driven by AI data centre demand which was worsened by ChatGPT’s hoarding of 40% of the world’s DRAM supply, could delay the anticipated 2027-2028 releases of the PlayStation 6 (PS6) & the next Xbox.
The Rising Cost of RAM & Its Impact on Console Development
Tom Henderson’s report highlights a dramatic surge in DRAM prices in the wake of OpenAI’s monopoly, with server modules increasing by 50% and some consumer variants rising by up to 170%. This scarcity presents a critical dilemma for console manufacturers, who must decide whether to absorb the costs, pass them onto consumers, or delay production in anticipation of stabilised prices. Industry analyses indicate that RAM prices have risen by several hundred percent in recent months, exacerbating the challenge for mass-producing consoles at competitive price points.
Supporting this, technical reports suggest that the shortage stems from a shift in manufacturing priorities, with major producers allocating resources to advanced memory types for AI applications rather than commodity DRAM. This supply constraint not only threatens next-generation hardware but also raises the possibility of price hikes for current-generation consoles in 2026.
Industry Response & Potential Delays
According to Henderson’s findings, manufacturers such as Sony and Microsoft are considering a delay beyond the 2027-2028 release window. This strategic decision hinges on whether RAM producers can expand their capacity to reduce costs. Industry forecasts suggest that memory shortages, driven by AI & data centre expansion, could persist for multiple years, potentially extending the lifecycle of current-generation consoles like the PS5 & Xbox Series X. This extended timeline would allow developers to maximise existing hardware with titles such as GTA 6 & enhancements like the PS5 Pro.
Economic analyses further indicate that the industry may prioritise software innovation & mid-generation upgrades over new hardware launches, ensuring competitiveness despite the supply constraints. This approach aligns with observations that current consoles remain relevant, with many games optimised for existing specifications rather than requiring new systems.
For gamers, the RAM price surge carries immediate implications. The industry’s reluctance to release new hardware at elevated costs suggests that existing consoles may face further price increases in 2026. Additionally, 2025’s price hikes for the Nintendo Switch 1—raising its cost from $300 to $340—demonstrate that the days of markdowns for last-generation consoles may be gone for the foreseeable future. This shift indicates that gamers who have not yet purchased a current-generation console should not wait. Price hikes are likely forthcoming for current generation consoles as supply constraints persist.
The correlation between Henderson’s initial report & subsequent industry analyses underscores a pivotal moment for the gaming sector. The RAM shortage, driven by AI demand & Sam Altman’s monopoly, could reshape release schedules & pricing strategies for years to come. As manufacturers navigate this challenge, gamers are advised to stay informed & consider their purchases carefully. With the potential for prolonged use of current hardware, the focus may shift towards software development & mid-generation enhancements, ensuring the industry remains robust despite economic pressures.
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