In a pinned thread on X, silver investor / #silversqueeze proponent @echodatruth writes:
“The real value of silver is between $12,000 to $1,200,000 per oz.
Hear me out…
You’re probably wondering how I got to those crazy silver prices. Well, it’s simpler than you think. [At the COMEX] there are 400 paper contracts for each ounce of silver…
Here’s the basic math:
Hypothetical real silver price = current silver price × paper to silver ratio
So,
Hypothetical real silver price = $30.00 × 400 ≈ $12,000.00
Crazy, right? But it gets even wilder because each of those 400 contracts could be leveraged up to 100 times (not saying they all are, but hypothetically):
Adjusted ratio = nominal ratio × average leverage
Adjusted ratio = 400 × 100 = 40,000
So,
Hypothetical real silver price = $30.00 × 40,000 ≈ $1,200,000 🤯🤯🤯”
My thoughts on this:
I personally feel like Echo’s analysis is slightly off. Not because it is too high, but because it is too LOW!
Everything he said about COMEX spoofing silver contracts is true, but the big problem here is that they do the same thing to gold, which he has not taken into account. I feel that this is a major fallacy since silver has been priced against gold, not fiat, for the majority of history,
For gold, they are currently spoofing 127.56 contracts for every 1 ounce of gold they actually have, so let’s follow Echo’s logic here. Note that prices & rates are current as of January 30, 2025.
Scenario 1
Hypothetical real gold price per ounce: current gold price $2,767.36 USD × paper to gold ratio 127.56 = $352,147.62 USD (54,419,132.46 JPY)
Scenario 2
Hypothetical real gold price per ounce: Adjusted ratio = nominal ratio × average leverage Adjusted Ratio = $2,767.36 USD × 12756 = $35,214,761.76 USD (5,441,913,208.58 JPY)
The historical average of silver being mined is 15 ounces of silver mined for every 1 ounce of gold mined, but due to recent scarcity, it is now at a ratio of 7 ounces of silver being mined for every 1 ounce of gold mined.
Assuming Scenario 1 is True
WORST price for 1 ounce of silver (1/15 true gold price) $23,476.51 USD (3,627,942.47 JPY).
BEST price for 1 ounce of silver (1/7 true gold price) $50,306.80 USD (7,774,161.34 JPY).
Assuming Scenario 2 is True
WORST price for 1 ounce of silver (1/15 true gold price) $2,347,650.78 USD (362,879,470.72 JPY).
BEST price for 1 ounce of silver (1/7 true gold price) $5,030,680.25 USD (777,481,957.83 JPY).
With the gold to silver ratio (GSR) now hovering around 91 to 1 (in other words, you can buy 91 ounces of silver for the same cost as 1 ounce of gold) as annual silver supply deficits climb ever closer to 200 million ounces, my personal opinion is that silver is now presenting the investment opportunity of a lifetime!
I’m not a financial advisor & this is not financial advice, I’m just heavily invested in silver.
If you want to start investing in precious metals & want a FREE half-ounce of silver, sign up for Kinesis using my link!